Navigating the Wall of Maturities: Insights from the CREFC Capital Markets Conference in New York City 

Rachel Gammons, Client Engagement Director

At the recent CREFC Capital Markets Conference in New York City, industry leaders from across the commercial real estate (CRE) sector came together to address the state of capital markets. With billions of dollars in loans set to mature over the next few years, panelists discussed the impact of these maturities on the market, the role of different financial institutions, regulatory changes, and what the future holds for lenders and borrowers alike. Below are the key takeaways from these discussions. 

The Wall of Maturities: An Unprecedented Wave 

One of the primary challenges facing the CRE market today is the sheer volume of loans approaching maturity. By 2024, $930 billion in CRE loans will come due, with an additional $660 billion expected in 2025. There is a multitude of misconceptions about what this “wall of maturities” looks like, as it places lots of blame on the office market. While office is a large piece, it’s not everything. Large quantities of retail, multifamily, and other asset types are also set to mature in the next two years.  

• The broader perspective on office loans: There’s a common misconception that every office loan is underperforming or at risk of default. However, the situation is more nuanced. Some office loans are performing very well. Work-from-home is a contributing factor to office struggles but doesn’t tell the whole story of how the office market is performing today.  

Distribution of CRE Loans 

A critical insight from the discussions was the distribution of CRE loans across different types of financial institutions. The lending landscape is tiered, with the top 25 banks holding one-third of all outstanding CRE debt. The next 138 banks hold another third, and the remaining third is distributed across thousands of smaller institutions. 

This tiered system underscores the varying levels of exposure and risk across different types of lenders. While the largest banks are managing a bulk of the CRE debt, smaller banks play a significant role, particularly in regional markets. The smaller banks are still actively lending, providing a critical service to their customers even as larger institutions exercise caution. 

Anticipating Regulatory Updates 

One of the most important regulatory developments discussed at the conference was the upcoming updates to Basel III, which impacts lenders’ capital requirements. Basel III regulations are designed to strengthen the resilience of financial institutions by imposing stricter capital and liquidity requirements. The changes require lenders to hold more capital against risk-weighted assets, which could tighten lending standards even further. 

• Impact on lending: As these new requirements take effect, lenders may be forced to adjust their risk appetites. For larger banks, which already hold substantial CRE exposure, this could mean even tighter credit availability, particularly for high-risk loans like office and retail properties.  

• Passing the costs to borrowers: Many lenders expect that the higher cost of capital associated with Basel III will be passed on to borrowers, resulting in higher interest rates or stricter loan terms. This could contribute to the challenges posed by the Wall of Maturities. 

• Flexibility for smaller loans: However, panelists also discussed the possibility that certain types of loans, particularly those with low loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, may face less stringent capital requirements under Basel III, which could help mitigate the impact on lower-risk borrowers. 

The Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut: A Boost of Optimism 

While discussions about loan maturities and tighter lending conditions dominated much of the conference, attendees were met with positive news during the event. The Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point (bp) rate cut, which had been a hot topic of conversation among attendees. 

• Optimism about the rate cut: Many panelists and industry professionals expressed cautious optimism about the Fed’s decision, seeing it as a potential relief for upcoming maturities. Conference participants noted that the rate cut could spur renewed activity in the CRE market, offering some breathing room for borrowers to restructure debt and secure better refinancing terms.  

• Balancing optimism with caution: While there was widespread optimism about the rate cut, panelists also stressed the importance of remaining cautious. The Wall of Maturities remains a significant challenge, and the effects of the rate cut will take time to filter through the market. However, the consensus was that this move by the Fed is a positive signal for the broader economy and could provide critical support to the CRE sector as it navigates the upcoming wave of maturities. 

The CREFC Capital Markets Conference highlighted the challenges posed by the Wall of Maturities, with over $1 trillion in CRE loans maturing by 2028. While the Federal Reserve’s recent 50bp rate cut offers a glimmer of optimism, regulatory changes and nuanced office market struggles still remain. As the market adapts, both large and small lenders will need to be strategic in managing risk, navigating new regulations, and leveraging opportunities in a shifting economic landscape. 

Are you prepared to navigate the risks posed by the current market conditions? Interested in learning about how Blooma can help optimize your CRE portfolio monitoring processes and mitigate risk? Contact info@blooma.ai to set up a demo today.